Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 15.607614 18.939153 22.625302 26.981376 31.962616 37.455173 43.942809
2025-11-23 10.352990 14.530335 19.659765 26.311782 34.593183 44.444535 56.920804
2025-11-30 7.998956 12.590332 18.695524 27.167461 38.358290 52.365445 70.924626
2025-12-07 6.050108 10.615562 17.149212 26.776897 40.157083 57.629426 81.645505
2025-12-14 4.831996 9.362787 16.285668 27.028008 42.604709 63.660579 93.464177
2025-12-21 3.588835 7.757227 14.590512 25.778696 42.713297 66.400664 100.898794
2025-12-28 3.006389 7.118052 14.255127 26.446099 45.518136 72.892487 113.614355
2026-01-04 2.484113 6.456395 13.757749 26.754435 47.737689 78.593393 125.404570
2026-01-11 2.087430 5.938856 13.412742 27.233022 50.191670 84.689379 137.940298
2026-01-18 1.795839 5.566873 13.262575 27.992656 53.091955 91.528555 151.759848
2026-01-25 1.427360 4.914462 12.471959 27.531274 53.948414 95.279529 161.146723
2026-02-01 1.195665 4.524971 12.131842 27.820856 56.023937 100.941611 173.522953
2026-02-08 0.953452 4.048017 11.574842 27.728867 57.584974 106.093191 185.691164
2026-02-15 0.715947 3.487879 10.736350 27.005401 58.009029 109.486791 195.368494
2026-02-22 0.611185 3.300007 10.710030 27.876012 61.291337 117.604830 212.617319
2026-03-01 0.467518 2.904775 10.104333 27.477395 62.220172 121.873968 223.942128
2026-03-08 0.377488 2.661669 9.829112 27.733580 64.353093 128.203967 238.711530
2026-03-15 0.260094 2.216182 8.910082 26.458872 63.473587 129.371223 245.186840
2026-03-22 0.217258 2.092267 8.863320 27.139875 66.401354 137.158796 262.633871
2026-03-29 0.173986 1.931212 8.670951 27.454469 68.611861 143.765587 278.315202
2026-04-05 0.141574 1.805293 8.558522 27.942736 71.187894 151.093311 295.379411
2026-04-12 0.118799 1.721644 8.564356 28.717657 74.382677 159.618488 314.656258
2026-04-19 0.085135 1.513104 8.096821 28.247001 74.961735 163.456170 326.134101